Could London's future poor be banking on bikes, and is the city ready for them?

Back in the day when "a man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure" (Margaret Thatcher, 1986), a man who found himself on a bicycle must have really felt at the bottom of the economic hierarchy.  These days bicycles are more likely to be associated with aspiring Prime Ministers (both of them), Lord Sugar and the affluent classes, not to mention the well-documented rise of the monied MAMIL and the migration of the golf set on to two wheels.
Perhaps this has helped to bring about a perception that people cycle out of choice and not necessity; that their journeys could be easily supplanted with a trip by car or on the Tube if conditions are unfavourable; but as cycling rates grow in London so will the profile of its cyclists and we could soon find ourselves with a new "cycling tribe"; one that is very poor indeed.

This week sees the overhaul of England's social welfare system and unless you've been living under a rock you won't have been able to escape all of the media chatter about benefits and the so-called bedroom tax.  In the coming years poorer people within our society are likely to find themselves initially less well off; its claimed that inner city poorer people will move to cheaper suburban areas and poorer people with limited mobility already living in suburban areas could have to give up running a car.  Government minister Iain Duncan Smith may think it is possible to live off £53 a week, but most people would struggle and be looking to make economies where it is possible.  With diesel fuel currently costing around £1.40p a litre and a one day Zone 1-4 Transport for London Travelcard coming in at £11, or £43.50 for a week, the bicycle makes the most sensible choice for people with decreasing incomes to get around.

How will the profile of London's cyclists change in the coming years?

Transport consultants Steer Davies Gleave recently released a discussion document outlining how cycling levels will grow across London in the forthcoming years.  A "contagion" effect will see cycling growth ripple out from boroughs with already high levels of cycling, such as Hackney, whilst new centres for cycling will grow in the outer London boroughs.  Outer London locations with no cycling to work will decrease to 7% down from 42% in 2001, based on projections modeled on 2001 and 2011 Census data, whilst across the capital 95% of locations will include people who cycle to work, compared to just 66% in 2001.

Cycling to work levels across London in 2011:

Projected cycling to work levels across London in 2021;

As more people turn to using a bicycle as the most economic mode of transport as a consequence of their personal financial situation, we should expect to see people from a wider spectrum of London's society riding.  Very cheap second-hand bicycles and sub-£50 supermarket bikes will become as ubiquitous as City racers on high-end road bikes.  People will begin to use bikes more in poorer outer London areas where previously there was little or no bicycle use at all.  Using a bicycle out of necessity rather than by choice means you are less likely to be able to afford to switch transport modes in the event of inclement weather; we can expect to see more people riding through winter, riding in the dark and riding in wet and extreme-weather conditions.  Most people I know who currently ride do so because they have a certain passion for bikes, a love of the ride, but this emerging new sub-group of cyclists will have a different approach.  Many will feel they have no choice but to ride, as alternatives are untenable - as pointed out in the now defunct Sustainable Development Commission's excellent report Fairness in a Car Dependant Society;
"The cost of public transport alternatives to car ownership have risen substantially in real terms over the last decade, while in many cases services have worsened. A transport system that offers only limited and expensive public transport options can exacerbate unemployment issues. The Social Exclusion Unit’s report found two out of five jobseekers stated that lack of transport is a barrier to getting a job and the two most common problems for young
jobseekers were “lack of personal transport” and “no job nearby”.  For those currently hoping to move off benefits, transport problems can be a major worry. Research for the Department for Work and Pensions found: “Of all the factors associated with concern about moving off benefit, one (access to transportation)
stood out as especially important in predicting anxiety.” (page 26)

Drawing Rings data blog's heat map of cycling collisions in central London show that the "hottest" areas are also some of the poorest; Elephant and Castle, Whitechapel and the Euston Road feature strongly alongside more "traditionally dangerous" corners of the capital such as Blackfriars and Trafalgar Square.  Conversely, some of these areas are perceived to be poorer areas because of the way in which they are blighted by motor traffic, which in turn is the source of the danger.

In short, the pace of change needed to accommodate London's future cycling communities needs to increase, and quickly.  If we are to turn around the worrying trend of cycling in London becoming more dangerous with the more people who cycle (the venerable CTC's words, not mine), then concerted efforts are going to be needed across all of our boroughs and not just where the coolest (or most vociferous) cyclists reside.  We need to see an increase not just in the types of cycling shops prepared to sell and service the kind of bikes this new, less wealthy market will demand, but also a dedication from local boroughs - in terms of both allocating resource and road space - to keeping these new cyclists safe.  The alternative; of poorer people being killed or seriously injured getting about by bike because they felt they had no alternative but to ride, is too terrible to contemplate.

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